Time Series Foundation Models in Practice

Could time series foundation models improve the forecasting of district heating demand? In our offline study, we compared Chronos-2, TimesFM-2.5, and Moirai-2 with AutoARIMA, XGBoost, and other baselines across four real district heating grids. Chronos-2 produced the most accurate results, even in zero-shot settings without target-grid training data. We also examine data efficiency, fine-tuning, resilience to faulty sensor inputs, and operational reliability.

Global district heating forecasting models

Global models such as TFT and TimesFM are revolutionising district heating forecasting by providing more accurate predictions, using synergies between systems and effectively solving the cold start problem.